Will Mortgage Rates Go Down? What the Latest Forecasts Say
In this article
"Maybe a little, but the major forecasts do not show a big drop soon. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% in Freddie Mac's survey as of Sept. 24, 2026. Fannie Mae's Sept. 11, 2026 forecast expects it to average 6.8% in the last three months of 2026 and 6.7% in each quarter of 2027. A forecast is an educated guess, not a promise, and nobody can tell you for sure where rates will go.
Where are mortgage rates right now?
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.03% as of Sept. 24, 2026, in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That was up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier, Freddie Mac reported an average of 6.30%.
The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.42% in the same Sept. 24, 2026 survey, up from 6.26% the week before.
Rates climbed fast this summer. Freddie Mac's weekly history file (checked Sept. 27, 2026) shows the 30-year average at 6.66% for the week of Aug. 27, 2026. It was 7.03% four weeks later. The same file shows the last weekly average at or above 7% before this one was 7.04%, for the week of Jan. 16, 2025.
Rates also moved the other way earlier this year. The lowest weekly average in 2026 so far was 5.98%, for the week of Feb. 26, 2026, per the same Freddie Mac file. That swing is a good reminder: rates can move a lot in a few months, in either direction.
Freddie Mac publishes a new average every Thursday at 12 p.m. Eastern. Your own rate will depend on your credit, down payment, loan type and lender.
Why did mortgage rates go up?
Two things pushed rates up.
First, the Federal Reserve raised rates. In its Sept. 16, 2026 statement, the Fed's rate-setting committee voted 12 to 0 to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement said: ""Inflation remains elevated.""
Second, longer-term borrowing costs rose. In a Sept. 25, 2026 post, the Mortgage Bankers Association wrote that rising Treasury yields have put ""renewed upward pressure on mortgage rates."" It said the 10-year Treasury yield was close to 5.2 percent, up from around 4 percent in February 2026.
In plain words: when the cost of long-term borrowing rises across the market, mortgage rates tend to follow. The Fed's move and the Treasury market have both pushed in the same direction in recent months.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
The forecasts we checked point to only a small dip before the year ends.
Fannie Mae: Its Housing Forecast dated Sept. 11, 2026 expects the 30-year fixed rate to average 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026. Fannie Mae notes that its rate forecasts are based on rates from Aug. 31, 2026. That was before the Fed's hike and before the weekly average reached 7.03%.
Mortgage Bankers Association: In the same Sept. 25, 2026 post, MBA said its current forecast is for mortgage rates ""to average close to 6.8 percent in the coming quarters.""
Federal Reserve: In its Sept. 16, 2026 projections, the median Fed official expects the federal funds rate to be 4.1% at the end of 2026. That is higher than the middle of today's 3.75% to 4% range, so the median projection does not point to a Fed rate cut by year-end.
So the short answer for 2026: the main forecasts see rates a little below 7%, not a return to the 5s or low 6s.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Fannie Mae's Sept. 11, 2026 forecast has the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.7% in every quarter of 2027. That is lower than 7.03%, but not by much.
The Fed's Sept. 16, 2026 projections show the median official expecting the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2027, 3.9% at the end of 2028 and 3.6% at the end of 2029. The same projections show PCE inflation, the Fed's main price measure, at 3.7% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027. If inflation cools the way the Fed projects, that could leave room for lower rates later. That is a forecast too.
Here is what each source says, side by side:
Source | Date | What it says |
|---|---|---|
Freddie Mac weekly survey | Sept. 24, 2026 | 30-year fixed averaged 7.03%; 15-year fixed averaged 6.42% |
Fannie Mae Housing Forecast | Sept. 11, 2026 | Forecast: 30-year fixed averages 6.8% in Q4 2026 and 6.7% in each quarter of 2027 |
Mortgage Bankers Association | Sept. 25, 2026 | Forecast: rates average close to 6.8% in the coming quarters |
Federal Reserve projections | Sept. 16, 2026 | Median federal funds rate: 4.1% at end of 2026 and 2027, 3.9% at end of 2028 |
How much would a lower rate save you each month?
Numbers make this easier to see. The table below uses our own math on one loan size.
EXAMPLE ONLY: $400,000 loan, 30-year fixed. Principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance are not included.
Rate | Where the rate comes from | Monthly principal and interest | Difference vs. 7.03% |
|---|---|---|---|
7.03% | Freddie Mac average, Sept. 24, 2026 | $2,669.27 | $0 |
6.8% | Fannie Mae forecast, Q4 2026 | $2,607.70 | $61.57 less |
6.7% | Fannie Mae forecast, 2027 | $2,581.11 | $88.16 less |
6.30% | Freddie Mac average one year earlier | $2,475.89 | $193.38 less |
In this example, the drop Fannie Mae forecasts for 2027 would save about $88 a month. That is real money, but it is far smaller than the gap between today and a year ago.
What could change the forecast?
Forecasts get updated as new data comes in. A few things to watch:
Inflation. The Fed's Sept. 16, 2026 statement said inflation ""remains elevated."" Its projections expect inflation to cool in 2027. If it cools faster or slower, forecasts can change.
Treasury yields. MBA's Sept. 25, 2026 post tied this summer's rise in mortgage rates to rising Treasury yields.
The next Fed meetings. The Fed's calendar lists its next meetings for Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9, 2026.
Weekly rate data. Freddie Mac posts a new average every Thursday.
If you are shopping for a home, it is smart to check the latest weekly average before you talk numbers with a lender.
What this means for new-construction buyers
Rates matter a little differently when you buy a brand-new home.
Your home may close months from now. A home that is still being built may not close for a while. The rate that counts is the one on your loan when it is locked and closed, not today's headline. Ask your lender early how rate locks work for your timeline.
Builders sometimes help with the rate. Some builders offer to pay for a temporary or permanent rate reduction or help with closing costs. Offers change often and differ by builder and community. Call 561-704-0091 for today's numbers.
Know what a temporary buydown really does. A buydown can lower your payment for the first year or two, then the full payment starts. Our guide to the 2-1 buydown walks through the math.
Budget for the full payment. Plan around a payment you can afford today. Treat a future refinance as a bonus, not a plan.
National House Search is builder-neutral. We can line up new-home options from different builders side by side, so you can compare the full deal, not just the rate.
Common Questions
Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Only a little, according to the forecasts we checked. Fannie Mae's Sept. 11, 2026 forecast expects the 30-year fixed rate to average 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026. Freddie Mac's survey average was 7.03% as of Sept. 24, 2026. A forecast is not a promise.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Fannie Mae's Sept. 11, 2026 forecast expects the 30-year fixed rate to average 6.7% in each quarter of 2027. The Fed's Sept. 16, 2026 projections show a median federal funds rate of 4.1% at the end of 2027. Both point to a small dip, not a big drop.
Did the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Yes. On Sept. 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. Its statement said inflation remains elevated.
Why are mortgage rates above 7% again?
Freddie Mac's 30-year average reached 7.03% as of Sept. 24, 2026. The Fed raised rates on Sept. 16, 2026, and the Mortgage Bankers Association wrote on Sept. 25, 2026 that rising Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates up.
How much would a lower rate save me?
On a \$400,000 example loan, the 30-year payment is \$2,669.27 a month at 7.03% and \$2,581.11 at 6.7%, principal and interest only. That is about \$88 a month less. Your savings depend on your own loan amount and rate.
When does Freddie Mac publish new mortgage rates?
Freddie Mac publishes its weekly survey every Thursday at 12 p.m. Eastern. Each release is an average of rates on loan applications from the prior Thursday through Wednesday.
Ready to take the next step?
Call 561-704-0091 to talk with a National House Search specialist, or Schedule a visit.
Related reading: What is a 2-1 buydown and is it worth it? · Buying a new-construction townhome for the first time · Condo vs. townhouse vs. single-family home
This is general information, not financial, tax or legal advice. Figures checked September 27, 2026."